After crushed by Typhoons Ketsana and Parma, the northern Philippines is now suffer another predicament.The tropical storm Lupit has its probability to bring a heavy damage to the northern Philippines, especially Cagayan. Although the new numerical analysis reveal that Lupit will recurve and the northern Philippines can be spared on a direct hit, the outer rainbands will still contribute to life-threatening floods and landslides in Philippines.
Tropical storm Lupit, located about 560 kilometers north-northeast of Manila, has been constantly decelerating in the past few hours. As the influence of the mid-level low pressure trough, reached just above Taiwan(shown in figure1), the high pressure steering ridge remained in the west pacific will be weakened. Under those conditions, there is high possibility that Lupit might track north slowly and approach Taiwan.
Figure 1 - Wind Field in Steering Layer 500hPa of ECMWF
Enhanced by the mid-level low pressure trough, dry and cold air will flow further south and the circulation of Lupit will continue to weaken under these unfavorable conditions. Although Lupit is expected to track towards Taiwan, the rainbands of Lupit will weaken and bring only moderate rains to Taiwan.
Organization Cyclone Information:
+ HKO(10-min avg): STS105 km/h + JMA(10-min avg): STS111 km/h + CWB(10-min avg): STS108 km/h + JTWC#38(1-min avg): STS101 km/h
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